EcoRisk Prediction Model for Assessing Biodiversity Loss Under Anthropogenic Landscape Pressure

Abstract

Loss of biodiversity associated with anthropogenic landscape pressure has become one of the key ecological concerns in the twenty-first century. In this paper, the EcoRisk Prediction Model will be introduced to measure and predict the loss of biodiversity induced by land intensification, urbanization, and habitat fragmentation. Landscape pattern indices, land use change processes, and ecological sensitivity indicators have been incorporated to the integrated risk prediction model. Multi-temporal spatial data were analyzed to reveal the spatial pattern and temporal process of ecological risk in the study area. It was found out that the proposed EcoRisk Prediction Model could classify risk into different levels and locate important areas where biodiversity loss could take place due to continued anthropogenic activities. Regions where rapid land conversion took place, especially at the transition area between urbanization and agriculture land use, had higher ecological risk than other regions. The model had shown high capacity of predicting the spatial heterogeneity of risk patterns. The results provide scientific evidence for planners and conservation authorities to identify and implement intervention measures.