Forest Recovery Prediction Model for Evaluating Ecological Restoration Progress Using Multi-Year Habitat Indicators

Abstract

Tools that are able to monitor recovery trends over several years are becoming more important for ecological restoration projects as being applied increasingly to forested landscapes where only a single year may provide a snapshot of habitat condition. This paper introduces a conceptual model, the Forest Recovery Prediction Model, to assess progress of ecological restoration based on multi-year indicators of habitat conditions to predict the recovery trajectory of a forest after disturbance or active restoration efforts. The model includes three interrelated parts: the collection of multi-year habitat indicators, prediction of recovery based on trends, and comparative assessment against expected restoration or recovery benchmarks. Based on recent progress in vegetation potential forecasting, wetland ecological network restoration, karst vegetation recovery prediction, and coastal ecological resilience assessment, the model is expected to assist restoration practitioners in predicting whether a forest recovery project is likely to be successful before reaching full canopy or community recovery. The model has not yet been tested with long-term field data, but the indicator-based, trajectory-based approach provides a clear trajectory to enhance the way restoration progress is measured and reported. The model needs to be evaluated in forest types with varying disturbance history and restoration methods in order to make it more generally applicable.