Eco Climate Intelligence Framework for Assessing Climate-Induced Distribution Shifts of Wildlife Species

Abstract

With a changing climate, animal species are becoming more common outside of the historical ranges in response to different temperatures and resource availability, in higher latitudes, higher elevations, or new habitat types. Most of the research that has documented these changes has been focused on wildlife distribution shifts that have already occurred, thus limiting the capacity of wildlife managers to predict distribution shifts prior to the introduction of conservation risks and new species interactions for a given area. This paper suggests a conceptual framework (Eco Climate Intelligence Framework) to guide the assessment of climate-induced shifts in the distribution of wildlife species, combining historical distribution evidence with climate suitability trends and species-specific ecological traits in a structured way to identify species that are likely to shift distribution, the extent of the shift, and the implications for existing wildlife communities. The framework builds on recent research on the mechanisms and detection of species redistribution when climate change, climate-driven range shifts of economically important invasive species, and disease-vector risk assessment under changing climate conditions, and reflects the limited effectiveness of existing protected areas as stepping stones for species redistribution, the effect of energy-mediated movement responses of marine predators to climate change, and climate-informed land management planning. While the framework has not been used in a live monitoring program yet, the structure is a framework for predicting distribution change before it happens in occurrence data, enabling a more proactive approach to wildlife management.