Climate Risk Mapping Approach for Identifying Future Wildlife Conservation Hotspots

Abstract

As predicted changes to temperature regimes, precipitation patterns, and disturbance dynamics under climate change could shift conservation priority areas away from current climate and species distribution hotspots, conventional conservation mapping strategies that focus primarily on predicting where current populations are and what habitat conditions are like under present conditions may be insufficient for assessing and predicting future conservation success. This paper outlines a Climate Risk Mapping approach that draws on species distribution, habitat suitability, climate projection, disturbance impact, and anthropogenic context data to assess likely future conservation hotspots and novel climate refugia. This framework is grounded in current work in climate risk assessment, species-range shifts, wildfire effects, hotspot analyses, threats from infrastructure, and human-wildlife conflict. The framework identifies areas that will likely remain ecologically significant in the future and areas that will become more vulnerable to degradation due to the changing climate, thereby facilitating more proactive conservation planning. Further refinement through applied conservation decisions is needed, but this framework offers a robust tool to foster climate-resilient biodiversity management in all biomes.