Environmental Change Analytics Framework for Predicting Species Migration Alterations Under Climate Variability

Abstract

Mobile species depend on cues of predicted environmental conditions to accurately time the travels, so that present at resources and optimal habitats, and also for optimal breeding conditions. Changes in climate are altering these cues, which affect the timing of migration departure, changes in migratory routes, and mismatches with the presence of resources. Historical studies analyzing movements are typically focused on temporal and spatial changes separately, and often in one species; thereby compromising a more integrative picture. It is the aim of the Environmental Change Analytics Framework to integrate historical movement data with climate variability measures and species demographic sensitivity to jointly predict altered migratory timing and routes, drawing on and connecting studies of avian migration under changing climate, genomic monitoring on animal response, the link between demography and environment, amplification of human-wildlife conflict, implementation of assisted migration strategies, and changes on riverine fauna. Although it is not yet fully validated through active monitoring efforts, the developed framework can help predict populations vulnerable to migratory species based on altered behavior as part of broader adaptive mitigation strategies. Future validation experiments on active animal sampling, migration systems, and climate conditions would be needed.