India-UAE Trade Relations: An Econometric Analysis
Keywords:
India-UAE Trade, Log-linear model, Log-lin model, Basic Gravity Model, Forecast linear and Forecast ETS.Abstract
In the 1970s, annual trade between India and the United Arab Emirates amounted to approximately $180 million and largely consisted of traditional commodities such as dates, pearls, and fish. With the modernization of UAE economy leading to dramatic improvement in the relations between the two countries in the last ten years thereby becoming UAE as India's third-largest trading partner. The visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United Arab Emirates in 2015 marked a significant milestone in bilateral relations, as it was the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the UAE in 34 years India and UAE also signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in February 2022, and the agreement was effective from May 2022 paving the way for strengthening economic and strategic partnership. The paper has analyzed the export and import trends, trade balance. The study tried to analyse the economic relationship by applying log-linear model and log-lin model. The study applied basic form of Gravity Model. The future values of exports and imports trends are predicted by applying Forecast linear and Forecast ETS.