Modeling the Role of Climate Variables in the Distribution of two-spotted spider mite of West Azerbaijan Province

Abstract

Introduction: The two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae is one of the cosmopolite
pests, which attack many agricultural and greenhouse plants. Recognizing the distribution
of harmful mite species using climate data, geographical diversity, and optimal habitat
determination from an animal geographic perspective can be of great help in better pest
management. Species distribution modeling is one of the most common methods for
determining the range and potential territory of geographical distribution of plant and
animal species and usually determining this distribution in order to determine the
appropriate environmental conditions as well as the action of species to this condition is
used. The MaxEnt software is based on the maximum- entropy approach for modeling
species niches and distributions for presence- only species records.
Materials &Methods: The MaxEnt model was used to potential distribution in 15 stations
(orchards) of West Azerbaijan provinces in this study. Modeling the distribution of twospotted
spider mites using 6 environmental predictors and presence records including
maximum temperature of the hottest month of the year, minimum temperature of the coldest
month of the year, average temperature of the hottest season of the year, average
temperature of the coldest season of the year, precipitation the warmest season of the year
and the coldest rainy season of the year are among the 19 climatic variables. We used ROC
curve analysis and the area below the AUC curve, which is a numerical indicator of the
recognizing of the model's presence to evaluate the modeling result.
Results: The accuracy models were also evaluated by the area receiver operating
characteristic curve (AUC) value in this study.
Conclusion: According to the Jacknife test, variables of the temperature of the coldest
season of the year, average temperature of the warmest season of the year and minimum
temperature of the coldest month of the year were the most contributing in two-spotted
spider mite distribution modeling in West Azerbaijan province that average temperature of
the coldest season of the year was more important.