Integrating Energetic Landscape Models and GPS Telemetry to Forecast Migration Route Changes in Large Mammals

Abstract

Climate change, habitat fragmentation, and human activities are progressively posing a threat to the biodiversity of migration paths of large mammals. The proposed research combines the models of energetic landscapes to achieve the prediction of the changes in the migration pathways of species, including African elephants and mule deer, utilizing the GPS telemetry data. The model is able to measure the energy cost of movement in different habitats by taking environmental factors into account, such as terrain, weather, and availability of forage, and forecast future changes in migration under climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The model has been tested through the cross-validation method and has been effective in predicting 85% overlap with observed paths of migration. The expected changes imply that there will be a 15 % increase in the northward migration routes by 2030-2050, which will be mainly caused by the diminishing of forage and the heat stress. The paper also reveals the major energy hotspots, including the rivers and cities, which are migration obstacles. The implication of these findings is enormous in the conservation of wildlife, especially in the restoration of migration patterns, as well as the design of dynamic protected areas that respond to changing climatic conditions of the future. Although the model has been found to have great potential, some limitations include the mismatch of scales and collar biases. Future studies in the area ought to strive to work on the data accuracy, model further by adding more species, and have long-term climate projections to enhance the ability of the model.