Wild-Domestic Interface Dynamics and Disease Feedbacks at Expanding Livestock-Wildlife Frontiers

Abstract

Livestock production in wildlife areas has further boosted the degree of interaction between wildlife
and human beings, thus forming hotspots of cross-species diseases. The dynamics of interaction
between livestock and wildlife, environmental drivers, and disease feedback are examined in this study
in frontier landscapes that are experiencing land-use change. Using a retrospective longitudinal design,
secondary datasets from GPS tracking, camera traps, epidemiological reports, and environmental and
socio-economic sources were integrated. Livestock and wildlife contact rates, disease prevalence, and
environmental covariates were analyzed across seasons and land-use types. Multi-host susceptible
infected–recovered (SIR) models incorporating behavioral feedback were used to quantify cross
species transmission and evaluate system-level disease dynamics. Results indicate strong spatial and
temporal heterogeneity in interactions, with the highest contact rates in fragmented rangelands (dry
season mean 8.7 contacts/day) and agricultural frontier zones (7.9 contacts/day). The prevalence of
diseases was higher in dry seasons, the seroprevalence of livestock and wildlife increased from 9.8%
to 18.6%, and wildlife from 7.3% to 14.9%. The greatest prevalence was seen in hosts in high-contact
interface areas (livestock near wildlife, 22.4%; wildlife in high-density livestock areas, 19.7%). The
proportion of new infections being due to cross-species transmission was 34 - 47%, and the elasticity
of feedback (E = 0.62-0.71) indicated a reinforcement of behavioral responses that perpetuated
transmission. When interspecific pathways were added, simulated prevalence matched empirical data
(R2 = 0.68 0.74), and system-level R 0 was greater than the epidemic threshold (1.34). This paper
illustrates that interface disease dynamics are the result of the interplay of land-use change, seasonal
resource dynamics, and behavioral feedback. To achieve effective management, landscape-scale
approaches that mitigate livestock health, wildlife protection, and habitat connectivity are required to
minimize spillover of zoonotic diseases and ecosystem resilience.